美國總統Obama於2013年6月25日在Georgetown大學發表有關氣候變遷的演講,發表多項能源政策,對全球經濟發展的影響不可忽視Obama聲言對抗氣候變遷拯救地球固然極為重要,對於產業界來說,了解Obama政府的政策目標,從中找到商機,也是重要的議題。


Obama所透露的政策方向與觀點可整理為下列五點:

一、環保經濟主義
傳統觀念認為無法兼顧環保與經濟,Obama認為利用科技的力量,加上政府管制的推動,可以兼顧環保與經濟
Obama提到《空污法》、管制酸雨、管制致癌塑化物、限制氟氯碳化物、建立燃油標準,對產業不但無害,反而是促進產業升級的例子,證明環保對經濟有利Obama的主張看似只從環保出發,事實上也融合了美國經濟戰略,Obama不只論述環保不會傷害經濟,甚至主張以環保來發展經濟。

全球產業目前的問題,在於多數產品已經「夠好」,如電視業再推出更大、像素更高的電視,對消費者已無吸引力,電腦產業再推出更快、儲存容量更大的電腦,消費者也不需要,甚至連智慧型手機、平板裝置都很快將步入成熟期。

產品都已經「夠好」,無法刺激換機需求,成為全球經濟的根本病因之一,美國也深受其害,環保經濟主義成為這個問題的解答,加上環保要求以後,從家電、建築物、交通工具、發電廠,頓時都變得「不夠好」,產生龐大的更新需求,可重新推動經濟發展,產生大量就業機會,如Obama提出可再生能源與天然氣產業支持了數十萬份工作
美國企業若在環保技術上領先,亦能重新掌握全球的領袖地位,甚至還能以環保為貿易壁壘手段,Obama主張低碳潔淨能源經濟將會是經濟成長的引擎,並非只是說說而已,全球所有產業界都應體認到,遊戲規則已經改變。

二、環保巨棒主義
Obama說美國無法只靠自己減碳,開發中國家需一同肩負保護地球的責任,否則得一起承受苦果
乍看之下Obama對開發中國家的主張相當理性溫和,但其實隱隱舉起了環保巨棒主義的大棒。

Obama認為美國必須幫助更多國家更快轉換到乾淨能源,第一步先轉換到天然氣,停止金援海外燃煤電廠,並希望各國也跟進
,希望在全球自由貿易協商中納入乾淨能源議題,以幫助更多國家能直接跳過污染能源的階段,加入全球低碳經濟。並表示要擴大哥本哈根協定到所有國家,即包括開發中國家表面上說是「幫助」,其實這些政策是赤裸裸的以「金元與巨棒」向開發中國家施壓,強行改變能源政策,變相干涉內政美國有可能成為國際環保警察,拿起巨棒打擊倚賴高污染能源的國家,同時也是為製造業回流美國鋪路,因為環保巨棒主義將助美國製造業打擊開發中國家的低價競爭對手,保障美國製造業的高附加價值低碳潔淨能源經濟將會是美國經濟成長的引擎。

三、減碳計畫有三大項目,天然氣、風力與太陽能、節能(提升能源效率)

天然氣近年來也有環保爭議,但Obama積極全力支持,認為美國應該加強身為天然氣第一大國的地位,投入更多人力現代化天然氣輸配系統,以提供乾淨能源給更多家庭與企業,並表示天然氣可爭取布署更低碳能源的時間
天然氣的經濟面,如創造工作,減低家庭取暖用電的費用,雖然天然氣也有環保上的疑慮,但還有更深層的總體經濟策略考量。

在水平鑽探與高水壓裂岩技術下,美國頁岩氣大量生產,使得美國幾乎擁有全世界最便宜的能源,若再配合打擊全球燃煤發電的環保巨棒主義,可讓美國製造業在能源成本上比其他國家更有競爭力,此點恰好可以搭配Obama的製造業回流政策
要刮別人的鬍子,自己的也得先刮乾淨,美國本身需先鏟除燃煤發電美國40%的溫室氣體排放來自於發電廠,將指示環保部設立碳排放標準,不論新舊電廠都一體適用由於美國燃油發電佔比例不高,此舉可說是衝著燃煤發電來的,近年來美國燃煤電廠因為無法與低價天然氣競爭逐漸淘汰,限制令一出,勢必將加快老舊燃煤電廠退場的腳步。

Obama執政的過去4年,美國太陽能與風力發電倍增,如今,Obama計畫要再加倍美國的風能與太陽能,風能與太陽能可說是Obama能源策略的中心,市場也相當值得相關產業期待
Obama點名中國與德國為美國在這場乾淨能源產業競賽的對手,Obama說美國「要先參賽才能贏」,其積極心態毫無遮掩。

實際政策方面,美國內政部將在國有地倍增風能與太陽能發電容量,2020年以前批准10吉瓦(gigawatts),府也計畫增加批准現有水壩的水力發電量
美國國防部將在其各基地設置3吉瓦可再生能源聯邦政府機構於2020年將要有20%用電來自於可再生能源Obama也要求國會取消大石油公司的減稅,將資金轉投注在乾淨能源之上,但這部分需要國會配合。

美國自1990年至2011年,平均每年每美元GDP所消耗能源減少1.7% ,但是美國仍是能源浪費大國,美國能源效率經濟協會(American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy;ACEEE)發表的報告指出,美國在冷凍、空調、照明以外的雜項電力需求,包括家電、電梯、製冰機,以及醫院的核磁共振掃瞄機等等,每年使用78000兆BTU的能源,其中有40~50%能耗都可用現有的節能科技節省下來,每年浪費掉的能源相當於阿根廷全國用電
Obama曾呼籲聯邦與各州合作,在2030年以前增倍美國的能源效率,也就是說,在同樣的經濟規模下可減半能源消耗。

Obama提出要為家電設立節能標準,並且在聯邦所屬大樓節能,美國農業部(Department of Agriculture)會投入2.5億美元幫助鄉間電力網路提升效率;美國住房及城市發展部(Department of Housing and Urban Development)將注資2300萬美元投入提升住宅能源效率計畫
隨著所有電器用品更新,大樓改裝節能設備,將創造大量美國本土就業機會,未來在Obama政府的積極支持下,各種節能產品與節能技術市場將大為擴增。

Obama演講全文中的減碳大計中並未包括核能
不過在Obama的《氣候行動計畫》計畫書中,計畫把先進生質能源科技、碳捕捉技術,與核能科技的新潮流:小型快滋生反應爐技術,三者相提並論,認為是「潔淨能源創新」還將核能與天然氣、碳捕捉燃煤並列,為美國要在全球其他各國推動的三種能源之一。

美國雖然30年來首度批准新核電廠
喬治亞州的Vogtle核電廠2個機組將分別於2016與2017年上線,南卡羅萊納州的Summer核電廠2個機組則將於2016與2019年上線但是美國65座核電廠的104座反應爐,大多都屆臨退役,有半數已經延役超限使用,被稱為「僵屍核電廠」,安全堪虞,終將不能再延役,或如加州San Onofre核電廠因外洩事故遲遲無法修復而永久關閉。

2013年,含加州San Onofre核電廠的2座反應爐在內,美國有4座反應爐退役、關閉,標誌著美國核電廠大退役潮的開始,現有的104個反應爐到了2035年將一個都不剩,只剩新建的Vogtle核電廠與Summer核電廠4個反應爐,其他新建核電廠計畫大多因為經濟因素胎死腹中,核能相關產業如核燃料生產等必須另謀出路,計畫書中的「核子擴散」政策,輸出核電到他國,可解核能相關產業燃眉之急
美國自己核能大退潮,卻鼓吹其他國家接收核能,其他國家是否願意配合當冤大頭,則是另一個問題。

四、美國能源自給

Obama演講中發表安全能源未來策略,提到美國開始生產更多自有能源,而能源自給也增加美國本土工作機會
Obama表態反對環保爭議相當大的鑰石輸油管(Keystone pipeline)計畫,此輸油管計畫將自加拿大輸送油沙原油進入美國,雖然Obama反對的理由是基於環保油沙原油需耗費最多能源,被認為是最高污染的石化燃料但是從Obama忽視天然氣產業的污染風險來看,根本的原因在於美國的能源自給政策美國本土天然氣符合能源自給,鑰石輸油管乃進口加拿大石油,不符合能源自給政策。

美國大力發展風能與太陽能,不僅是為了減碳,也是能源自給的一環,若美國真能照計畫走向能源完全自給,不僅影響全球產業,對全球戰略也將有根本性的影響,如中東的戰略重要性將降低,美國不再需要為了維持中東穩定耗費大量軍事費用在中東地區布署軍力,而這些軍力將轉移到何處,是否「重回亞洲」?是各國都十分關注的問題。

五、氣候資料分享

Obama指出,已經存在大氣中的二氧化碳仍然會持續造成氣候變遷,必須做好準備,因此在各地將建立海岸防洪系統、更強化的電力、供水、儲水、燃料供應系統等等,以及減少野火,保護沙丘與濕地等等努力
這將為各相關產業提供龐大商機但最重要的是氣候資料分享,Obama將繼續先前的氣候資料透明化的努力,建立一個開放式的平台,讓任何人都能取得氣候資料。

美國全球變遷研究計畫(The Global Change Research Program)將建立新的工具,打造氣候風險模型;美國國家氣候評估(National Climate Assessment)將提供地方單位預防災害行動所需的資訊;聯邦政府也將整合所有適應與緩和氣候變遷的辦法。

總體來說,Obama將建立一個最透明、最完整的氣候變遷與應對方式的資料庫,本意是讓各地方政府能打造足以對抗氣候變遷的設施,由於完全開放,民間也可以利用這些資料,在氣候資訊領域創造出許多商機。

美國一直認為自己是帶有特別使命的國家,成立初期,許多美國人,包括華盛頓在內,相信美國的天命是要向西擴張,直到橫過整個美洲大陸,直抵太平洋,並擴散民主制度與思想,在美墨戰爭之後,領土擴張大致完成,美國反而在美西戰爭中成為奪取殖民地的帝國主義國家之一,直到二戰過後,美國又重拾使命感,自認是自由世界的守護者,在冷戰中與蘇聯對峙。

蘇聯解體後,美國頓時失去目標,911之後美國全力投入反恐,也隨著Osama Bin laden的敗亡而告一段落
Obama為美國找到了新的目標,甚至在演講的結尾,提到美國開國先賢們賦予美國領袖的重責大任,不只是守護現在,還要照顧未來,美國率領全球一同對抗氣候變遷,是美國新使命 從歷史上來看,當美國將某件事視為是天命時,可說幾乎「使命必達」Obama的各項政策,將使全球相關產業波濤洶湧,風雲再起。

以下為英文版
The 5 Most Interesting Pieces of Obama’s New Climate Plan(2013/6/25's Address)
Ref: http://www.greentechmedia.com, JUNE 25, 2013
 
After promising to make climate change a top priority in his second term, President Obama has finally rolled out his new plan for action.

With Congress unable to pass anything substantive on climate change -- let alone admit that it's a problem -- Obama explained in his recent State of the Union address that he would do as much as possible with his executive authority. After a period of silence on what executive actions the president might take, the White House released an official plan of action this morning.

Speaking at Georgetown University this afternoon, Obama outlined his executive strategy for reducing carbon pollution, which he hoped would put pressure on lawmakers to adopt a market-based approach.

“I still want to see that happen. I’m willing to work with anyone to make that happen. But this is a challenge that does not pause for partisan gridlock," said Obama in his speech.

The "plan" is mostly made up of initiatives already underway within the administration that have been repackaged for an official rollout. Much of the document lacks specific targets, and instead relies on a long list of task forces and presidential memorandums directing various agencies to consider climate change. Some pieces that require new spending also depend on budget requests for fiscal year 2014, which are likely not to get fully funded by Congress.

Even the biggest piece of the White House plan -- Environmental Protection Agency regulation of carbon emissions from new and existing power plants -- has already been in the works for years. And the administration has already missed numerous deadlines for implementing those regulations. According to the White House documents, President Obama has issued a new memo to the EPA officials asking them to speed up the process, which he hopes to complete before ending his second term.

While much of the president's climate action plan is not exactly new, it does highlight the enormous number of executive actions in the works and ties them together into a coherent package.

"It attempts to systematically mobilize all the tools of the executive branch to rapidly deploy clean energy solutions and more modern and resilient infrastructure," said Bracken Hendricks, a senior fellow with the Center for American Progress (CAP). "It advances very concrete, measurable, and immediate steps. It builds on what's working, and it focuses the nation's attention on how to move forward together without delay using all the tools at our disposal."

So what are the most interesting tools the president has created? Most of the attention will be focused on EPA regulation of power-sector CO2 emissions. But there are a handful of new polices in the plan (some built on existing efforts) that could have a big impact. Here are five of them.

1. Doubling renewable energy by 2020

U.S. renewable electricity production doubled during Obama's first four years in office. The president now says he wants to double renewable electricity again through a suite of new policies.

The first is a goal to issue permits for 10 gigawatts of renewable energy projects on public lands by 2020 through the Interior Department -- doubling the number of permits already issued. Along with speeding up permits on public lands, the administration also wants to expedite permitting for incremental hydro projects on existing dams. Finally, the plan calls for 100 megawatts of installed renewable energy capacity on federally subsidized housing by 2020 and a 20 percent renewable procurement target for federal buildings by that date. Considering that the federal government is the largest property owner in the country, these are all new goals that will add substantial capacity.

“I believe Americans build things better than anyone else. I want to win that race. But we can’t win it if we aren’t in it," said Obama today.

2. Establishing strong new goals for energy efficiency

In his State of the Union speech, President Obama announced that he would attempt to double U.S. energy efficiency by 2030. This latest plan of action puts some pieces in place to start accomplishing that goal.

"Our federal government must lead by example," said Obama in today's speech. "Wasting less energy...is where we need to go."

The first is a new efficiency target for appliance standards and federal buildings. The president wants to tighten standards in both sectors to cut CO2 emissions by 3 billion metric tons by 2030, which translates to about half of yearly energy-sector carbon emissions. The second is a $250 million package through the Department of Agriculture to help rural utilities implement energy efficiency programs. Thirdly, the Department of Housing and Urban Development will provide another $23 million for affordable housing efficiency programs. The president will also seek to expand the Better Buildings Challenge for multi-family housing, work to increase energy data transparency through the Green Button Initiative and work with agencies to synchronize building codes.

CAP's Hendricks, who focuses heavily on efficiency deployment through the Clinton Global Initiative, said these pieces added up to a strong piece of the plan.

"In recent years, building energy efficiency has been a quiet success story. This plan builds on many of the tools that have worked," he said.

3. Launching a climate data initiative

Expanding on previous efforts to bring transparency to energy data, the administration wants to create databases for the latest climate science. Under the president's recent executive order on open data, the administration will establish an open platform for anyone to access climate science and understand how the government makes decisions on the issue.

In addition, the The Global Change Research Program will create new tools for risk modeling and the National Climate Assessment will include actionable information for local decision makers. Finally, federal agencies will be directed to create climate-resilience toolkits to centralize all the best practices on climate adaptation and mitigation. In combination, these tools could create the most comprehensive, transparent database of climate information ever created.

Obama said today that these databases will be set up to “make sure that cities and state assess risk under different climate scenarios so we don’t waste money on projects that don’t withstand the next storm.”

4. Stopping the public financing of international coal projects

The Export-Import Bank, over which the president has authority, has come under fire from environmental groups for financing coal plants in less-developed countries. The new Obama plan addresses those criticisms by stopping the practice. The administration wants to work with international development organizations like the World Bank to adopt these policies as well.

"Today I'm calling for an end to public financing for new coal plants overseas. And I urge other countries to join this effort," said Obama in his speech.

The new policy does leave some wiggle room, however. The government will still support projects featuring high-efficiency technologies if "no other economically feasible alternative exists" or that utilize carbon capture technologies. Although this language provides a loophole for the administration, it does represent a new policy that could have major implications for American activities in overseas energy development.

"It puts an end to the false trade-off that energy access and development must be gained at the expense of public health and our climate. Ultimately, it is a very big step forward for U.S. leadership in clean energy and for that President Obama should be applauded," said Justin Guay, head of the Sierra Club's international program.

As a complement to this new policy, Obama is also calling for new free-trade negotiations for environmental goods in order to break down trade barriers among countries.

5. Potentially avoiding construction of Keystone XL(tar sands pipeline)

The Keystone XL tar sands pipeline is not an official part of the president's climate plan. But in his speech today, Obama said he would ask the State Department to reject the pipeline if it resulted in a net increase in CO2 emissions. This is the first time that the president has made any official declaration on the pipeline.

"But I do want to be clear. Allowing the Keystone pipeline to be built requires finding that doing so would be in our nation’s interests. And our national interest will be served only if this project does not significantly exacerbate the problem of carbon pollution. The net effects of the pipeline’s impact on our climate will be absolutely critical to determining whether this project is allowed to go forward. It’s relevant," said the president.

Determining the net impact for emissions from Keystone XL offers more wiggle room for the president, as the State Department previously concluded that the Keystone XL pipeline would bring no major climate impacts. Environmental groups have disputed those findings. While up for interpretation, Obama's words added an interesting twist to the two-year political saga over Keystone XL.

The climate plan announced today is a way for the Obama administration to put pressure on Congress, show Americans what it is already doing and prove to the international community that the U.S. is moving forward.

"This should send a strong message to the world that America intends to take bold action to reduce carbon pollution," said Obama.

Although the plan featured a lot of old programs in a new package, supporters of the president backed him up on the substance of the plan.

"Each of these actions is a win. But together they become something more -- elevating the individual policy measures that have characterized this administration's approach to clean energy into a single overarching framework to help guide the federal government in making progress on climate and energy," said Bracken Hendricks.

Watch President Obama's speech on climate change.

Today President Obama spoke at Georgetown University about his plans to broadly address climate change. Ahead of his actual talk, the White House released the gist of what he would propose.

The EPA, working with states, industry, and other stakeholders, will establish new carbon pollution standards. "Tough new rules" will be established similar to those that exist for toxins like mercury and arsenic. These new rules, as anticipated, will target existing power plants as well as new ones.
    
The federal government will make available up to $8 billion in loan guarantees for "advanced fossil energy" and efficiency projects — broadly defining upgrades that improve power system efficiency, CO2 capture, and plant availability; examples include "clean coal," synthetic gas, better high-temperature materials, and improved turbine designs.
    
The Department of the Interior (DOI) will be pressed to permit enough renewables projects (e.g. wind and solar) on public lands by 2020 to power 6 million homes. The DOI also will designate the first-ever hydropower project for priority permitting, and establish a new goal of 100 MW of renewables on federally assisted housing by 2020 (while maintaining a commitment to deploy renewables on military installations).

The DOI has already been moving forward on the renewables-on-public-lands front. Last summer it broadly designated 285,000 acres of public land for solar development in six Western states, potentially home to more than 23 GW of development — enough to power 7 million American homes. And three weeks ago it approved three renewable energy projects in the southwest U.S.: the 350-megawatt Midland Solar Energy Project and the 70-MW New York Canyon Geothermal Project in Nevada, and the 100-MW Quartzsite concentrated solar energy (CSP) project in Arizona, collectively representing up to 520 MW, enough to power nearly 200,000 homes.

    (Note, however, that these household-serving numbers aren't so easily interpreted — it's unclear whether it represents the delivery from peak generation of solar and/or wind combined (or either), or whether and how that's in combination with whatever other generation is required to join them. Obama's pre-released statement doesn't clarify if or how other energy sources will be incorporated into that directive.)

Other directives on Obama's speaking agenda today include making commercial, industrial, and multifamily buildings at least 20 percent more efficient by 2020; and reducing carbon pollution by at least 3 billion metric tons cumulatively by 2030 — more than half the annual carbon pollution from the U.S. energy sector — through efficiency standards for appliances & federal buildings.

That's one-third of Obama's Climate Action Plan. Another part is more related to infrastructure than energy, and deals with mitigation rather than prevention: directing agencies to better support local climate-resilient investments, strengthen communities against future extreme weather and climate impacts (using Hurricane Sandy's impact as a touchstone), create sustainable and resilient hospitals, better educate farmers, ranchers, and landowners in "agricultural productivity," and launch a National Drought Resilience Partnership to minimize vulnerability to catastrophic fire.

Yet another thrust of Obama's plan looks beyond our borders: committing to expanding new and existing international initiatives, including bilateral initiatives with China, India, and other major emitting countries; a call for an end to U.S. government support for public financing of new coal-fired powers plants overseas (with a few exceptions for efficiency in poor countries, and facilities with carbon capture and sequestration); and expanding government and local community planning and response capacities.

We'll be updating this story throughout the day (and days ahead) with analysis of the President's plan, and most importantly what happens next — how it will eventually translate into action and legislation, and what might that journey entail.

原始資料來源:
Full Transcript of Obama’s Remarks on Climate Change
The 5 Most Interesting Pieces of Obama’s New Climate Plan
http://pv.energytrend.com.tw/news/20130723-6456.html

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